Grand Junction, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

509
FXUS65 KGJT 031126
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
426 AM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Gunnison Valley and, to a lesser extent, the upper Yampa
  will continue to run colder than the rest of the forecast area
  due to strong low-level inversions.

- Expect mostly sunny skies and a gradual warming trend this
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 332 AM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

The Rex block remained over the West Coast early this morning
while northwest flow aloft has shifted to the Plains. The
positioning of these features leaves the forecast area under a
col between the two which was evident in IR satellite imagery
early this morning.

During the next 36 hours the Rex block shifts eastward settling
over the Great Basin and Southwest by Wednesday afternoon.
Models indicated that aside from increased cirrus over the
southern portion of the CWFA, conditions will be largely
unchanged. Consequently, temperatures will be close to
persistence or a tad warmer for the vast majority of the
forecast area.

The temperature trend is less clear for the Gunnison Valley
where model blends and MOS guidance have struggled mightily
since Friday. It`s been warming, but slowly and there doesn`t
seem to be much chance that the inversion there breaks any time
soon. The 10Z/Tue temperature at KGUC matches the 10Z/Mon
reading so suspect afternoon highs today and Wednesday will be
slower to warm than in days prior. This discussion also applies
to Craig and areas along the upper Yampa River, but difference
from guidance in the north not as extreme.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 332 AM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

Quiet weather should persist through the work week as
northwesterly flow settles over the region. Generally warmer
temperatures look to accompany this pattern across the CWA, with
many locations looking at high temperatures exceeding normals
by 4-8 degrees. A shift in pattern is possible over the weekend
or early next week with potential for the development of a
shortwave trough over the northwestern CONUS. Should this
shortwave develop, the trough`s ensuing behavior is still up in
the air with model guidance varying greatly so far out in
advance of the system. Outcomes range from the trough deepening
and digging through the Great Basin to remaining relatively
shallow and passing to our north with minimal impacts.
Regardless, this system may present our next opportunity at
precipitation in the area. For now though, we`ll continue to
monitor trends as the weekend approaches and enjoy the nice
weather while it`s here.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 425 AM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

Expect VFR conditions and light and variable, or light terrain
driven winds during the next 24 hours.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...NL