Grand Junction, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

086
FXUS65 KGJT 050441
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1041 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire weather conditions remain localized on Sunday and into
  early next week. Fuels and surface conditions are still dry
  though. Obey all fire restrictions.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast
  with triple digits spreading across the lower desert valleys
  through late week and weekend period.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms could return as early as
  tomorrow afternoon...with coverage increasing Monday and
  Tuesday.

- Chances for wetting rain remain low, instead gusty outflow
  winds and dry lightning poses a threat to new fire starts
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

High pressure is centered over the Southern Rockies this evening
squeezed between a trough digging downstream into the Midwest
and an approaching upstream trough to the Cali coast. GOES ALPW
shows a fetch of SubTrop moisture arriving with this trough
while the 4 Corners region remains stuck under PWAT minimums.
The KGJT RAOB at 05/00Z is near a quarter of an inch which is
below the 10th percentile. As the westerlies retreat farther
north ridge will be expanding northward and strong enough to
force the upstream trough to trek across the western periphery
of the Great Basin into the N.Rockies through Monday evening.
The best moisture plume follows it...leaving us on the eastern
edge with PWAT barely pushing above normal through mid week
before drier air filters back in. With the best forcing and
better moisture bypassing us it is hard to get excited about
rain chances...in fact it seems more worrisome at this point.
Potential vorticity fields suggest a weak wave moving across eastern
Utah Monday morning and into Colorado during the afternoon. This
may try and initiate weak convection but for the most part feel
terrain forcing through the afternoon has a better chance of
tapping into instability and popping some storms. It will likely
take several generations and/or outflow boundary interactions to
get meaningful storms going and decent precipitation to the
ground. Unfortunately with dessicated vegetation and parched
soil moisture conditions in this prolonged drought...sub cloud
profiles suggest gusty winds and lightning will more of a threat
than wetting rainfall. Dry thunderstorms and erratic winds near
our active fires are likely going to be our focus each
afternoon through Wednesday. The spine of the central and
eastern San Juans remain the most probable area (~60%) to see a
tenth of an inch during the peak in this moisture surge on
Tuesday. By Wednesday the westerlies dip farther south as trough
digs through the PacNW...effectively flattening the ridge and
pushing back to the West. The results in drier air filtering
back across the Intermountain West into our CWA which leaves the
main thunderstorm chances to dwindle daily through the end over
the week over the Colorado divide mountains. Hot and dry
conditions settle in for the weekend.

Temperatures through this forecast period remain above normal
reaching a peak as we head into next weekend when highs look
well into the triple digits in the desert valleys. This time of
year not a climatologically anomalous but we will could be
floating around record territory for several days in a row. Most
of the records at GJT are in the 103 to 105 range...except for
the 107 set back in 2021 on the 9th. As mentioned before smoke
conditions could have some impact under the heavier plumes.
Night-time temperatures that have been cooling off nicely in
this very dry pattern unfortunately will likely stay a bit
warmer in the prolonged hot pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Overall VFR conditions in place with much lighter winds. However
smoke from active wildfires across our southern CWA is leading
to MVFR conditions at KTEX which may linger well into the early
morning hours. Similar conditions expected tomorrow with mainly
clear skies and light winds...with some obscuration to terrain
and visibility by the afternoon as smoke plumes develop.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1040 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Critical fire weather conditions look to remain localized again
on Sunday and into early next week. As we head farther into the
week climbing temperatures and higher mixing could expand these
conditions in some zones and this will continue to monitored
daily for trends.

The region sees its first glimpse of notable moisture on Monday.
The caveat appears to be that the bulk of this moisture lingers
in the mid-level atmosphere. The initial push of moisture will
creep in from the south on late Sunday. Inverted-V atmospheric
profiles with relatively moist mid-layers could prompt some
pyroconvection over hot spots Monday into Tuesday. Surface
moisture lingers into Wednesday and peaks on Tuesday.
Unfortunately this doesn`t mean a whole lot as most valleys
won`t get much higher than 10-20% RH with any soothing RH values
reserved for the higher elevations. As such, concerns are
increasing that we could be facing another multi-day stretch of
dry lightning focused around the slopes of the San Juans,
albeit other locations across the CWA are poised for slight
chances of thunderstorms as well (<35% chance). This will
threaten new lightning ignitions and exacerbated wildfire
conditions near virga showers and any gusty outflow winds that
they produce.

To leave you off with a bit of good news though, beyond
Wednesday spanning at least through the end of the work week,
though RH falls off once again, the overarching upper-level
pattern does not appear to become conducive to widespread critical
fire weather conditions as flow remains on the weaker side.
This pattern is relatively well-agreed upon amongst ensembles as
well. Increasing heat and dryness will still likely pose some
fire weather issues. Stay tuned for future forecast updates in
case models begin to trend in another direction.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT